AI Disruption Risk Framework
Evaluate how vulnerable your product is to AI disruption. Rate your product from Low Risk (1) to High Risk (7) on each of the factors below.
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Use Case Factors
Whether your product is where core work happens or just part of a larger workflow
Your product is where core work happens and users spend most of their productive time
Users use your product as part of a larger workflow and it serves as a complement to their primary workspace
Whether your product delivers exceptional quality that AI can't match or "good enough" quality that AI can replicate
Your product delivers "outlier" outputs that are hard to replicate and require specialized expertise or skills
Your product delivers outputs that are undifferentiated and where peak quality is unnecessary
Whether your product relies on nuanced judgment or sophisticated pattern recognition
Products that rely on nuanced human judgments and rare, specialized expertise
Products that rely on pattern recognition, even when that pattern recognition is complex
Whether your product's core use case involves workflows that resist full automation
Your product handles complex, unpredictable workflows requiring human intervention
Your product handles structured, repeatable workflows that can be fully automated
How quickly your customer base adopts new technologies
Your customers are conservative, have high switching costs, or follow rigorous procurement processes that slow adoption
Your customers are early adopters who actively seek new technologies and eagerly switch to better solutions
Whether customers value their relationship with the provider or just the deliverable
Your customers highly value relationships with specific individuals or your organization
Your customers are primarily transactional and focused on outcomes regardless of who delivers them
Whether variation in results helps or harms your product's value proposition
Your product requires absolute consistency where identical inputs must produce identical outputs every time
Your product benefits from variation and diversity in outputs, even with the same inputs
How often users naturally engage with your product
Your product is used daily or weekly, creating strong user habits resistant to change
Your product is used monthly, yearly, or less frequently, requiring users to rebuild familiarity with each use
Growth Model Factors
Whether AI is reshaping the channels you use to reach customers
Your distribution channels are stable, relationship-driven, or even enhanced by AI
Your primary distribution channels are being fundamentally reshaped by AI
Whether AI strengthens or undermines the mechanisms driving your product's growth
Your growth loop is intact or even strengthened by AI
A critical step in your growth loop is directly threatened by AI capabilities
Whether customers engage directly with your product or through intermediaries
Users come directly to your product and have a strong direct relationship with your company
Users primarily discover and access your product through third-party channels or intermediaries
Defensibility Factors
Whether your product relies on unique data inaccessible to AI systems
Your product is built on truly proprietary data inaccessible to general AI systems
Your product primarily leverages publicly available information
Whether your value comes from unique data assets or content that AI could replicate
Your product's core value comes from unique data assets that enable personalized experiences
Your product's core value comes from content that could be replicated by AI systems
Whether your product delivers emotional engagement or pure utility
Your product primarily delivers emotional engagement, entertainment, or experiences
Your product primarily delivers functional utility where increased efficiency directly enhances value
Whether your product has network effects that can't be simulated by AI
Your product's network effects are robust and based on human interactions that are difficult for AI to simulate
Your product's network effects are minimal or easily replicated by AI, making them vulnerable to disruption
Whether there are significant barriers preventing customers from switching to alternatives
Your product comes with significant technical or organizational barriers that make switching costly and challenging
Your product is easy to switch from, with low friction and minimal barriers, making it vulnerable to competitive AI alternatives
Business Model Factors
Whether your pricing reflects the value generated or simply the number of users
Your pricing is tied to measurable business outcomes that reflect the true value delivered
Your pricing is fixed per user/license, making it vulnerable if AI reduces the number of seats needed
How vulnerable your profit margins are to AI-related cost pressures
Your product enjoys strong margins that remain resilient in the face of rising AI costs
Your product operates on thin margins that are highly susceptible to AI cost pressures